Quantitative Strategic Plan

STRATEGIC PLAN & PROGRESS REPORT
By: Moody Jeans
Ning Lee
Erin McCutcheon
Ashley Hamm
Courtney Bunzel
Tamara Hall

Question: How do we find the hidden currents in fashion and interpret them to forecast future trends?

Strategic Plan: It has become apparent over time that discovering and understanding the fashion industry requires specific traits that build what is known as fashion forecasting today. As we prepare to begin our first fashion forecasting project, our team must look at what transition currents take so that we can analyze the future of fashion.
We will use several tools to solve and interpret the hidden currents, by using them towards fashion forecasting.
· The basic six steps of forecasting will in turn give us the knowledge to understand forecasting (i.e., defining the ‘cone of uncertainty’ and ‘looking for the curve’) and support the forecasts we put forward with qualitative and quantitative data.
· Innovation/innovators also play a key role in analyzing hidden currents. We will discover how to make the particular product we are researching respond to social/culture needs. We will pay close attention to outlying and unusual forms of inspiration (i.e., technology, food, media, etc.) that will in turn become the hidden currents we are searching for.
· Consumers are one of the most important aspects in interpreting hidden currents. They not only provide a target market for the product at hand, but they are also the sole provider of social and economical trends around the world. By looking at what choices (economical, political, social, etc.) propel the consumer to set these trends, we can determine the momentum behind the hidden currents and use them to forecast future consumer trends.
· Looking beyond the curve and anticipating trends can give us both competitive advantage in using our hidden currents and align our product with consumer’s preferences and demands. By using our trend analysis methods and looking at adoption processes, we can map out our hidden currents and establish the correlation between the consumer and different trends.

All of these steps will facilitate in the organization and planning of our project around Butler Bag. By following the guidelines listed above, we can easily interpret and use the hidden currents in fashion for the past and present forecast future trends. This will enhance and improve the Butler Bag and give our team a competitive advantage in gathering data and compiling our final project.

Progress Report:

PART I- RESEARCH: Gathering Data

Courtney Bunzel-

• Identify color trends for 1996-2000.
• Research Butler Bags and identify the key areas; color, price point, product lines, and sales.
• Scan the media, TV, music, movies, magazines, newspapers, etc.

Ashley Hamm

• Identify color trends for 2002-2006.
• Research Butler Bags’ competitors and other major designers.
• Observe surroundings.

Tamara Hall

• Identify color trends for 1984-1988.
• Begin taking photographs identifying cultural and social behaviors towards accessories.
• Identify overlapping tends and make charts.

Ning Lee

• Identify color trends for 1978-1982.
• Research consumer behavior.
• See what the target market would be best and investigate it.

Erin McCutcheon

• Identify color trends for 1990-1994.
• Gather information concerning the economic environment in 2010.
• Recognize patterns.

All Members:

• Identify color for 2010 from past data to discover the future direction
• Look at 2008 and how it relates to 2010.
• Transform data into knowledge.

PART II- TARGET MARKET: Gather data, analysis the data, interpret the data

As a team we will use our trend research as well as socio-economic research to identify an appropriate line of Butler Bags for our target market.

PART III- FORECAST FOR THE YEAR 2010: Presenting data in a clean professional way

Using the quantitative data from each year, we will discover patterns and hidden currents to successfully forecast for Butler Bags’ new line.

PART IV- DEVELOPMENT: Finishing our product line from our research

Prototypes will be sketched for the 2010 Butler Bag line.

Moody Jeans Poster Synthesis

Here is our team's Poster Synthesis for the years 1996 and 1998:

https://teamsite.oue.wsu.edu/progeval/amt/Shared%20Documents/Moody%20Jeans.pdf

To send our team feedback on our Poster, please click the link below:
feedback form

1994 vs.1996 vs.1998 Demographic, Geographic, and Consumer Behavior

From the Real Median Household Income graph, the income increased from 45,000 in 1994 to 48,000 in 1998, which indicates that the economy was booming, so does consumer confidence. Male and female earning increased around the same speed, but the earning of men was much higher than women since past decade. The consumer expenditure chart shows the change of expenditures from those years. In 1994, the expenditure was the highest reflected the growing economy. In 1998, the expenditure shrink more than half of the previous two years reflected the economy was slowing down and the coming of the recession in 2001.

Reference:

• http://www.erieri.com/newsletter/ volume 21, 36, and 37




• U.S. Department of Commerce, (2008, Aug 26). Household Income Rises, Poverty Rate Unchanged, Number of Uninsure Down. Retrieved October 13, 2008, from U.S. Census Census Bureau News Web site: http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/income_wealth/012528.html

Big Names in Designers for 1994 and 1996

1994 winners of the CFDA (Council of Fashion Designers of America) Awards
womens wear designer of the year: Richard Tyler
Perry Ellis Award for new fashion talent: Victor, Alfaro, Cynthia Rowley, Robert Massimo Freda
Cited for accessories: Robert Lee Morris, Gene Mayor

On the Street
Ralph Lauren employees wear T-Shirts that say "Fashion Targets Breast Cancer"
This becomes a 90's style statement

Calvin Klein named designer of the year for both men's and women's wear

1996 winners of the CFDA (Council of Fashion Designers of America) Awards
Donna Karan, Ralph Lauren, Helmut Lang, Daryl Kerrigan, and Arnold Scaasi

On the Street
movement of shopping for good causes continues in 1996,
Celebrities present consumers with opportunities to go on shopping sprees while benefitting AIDs organizations.

topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/c/council_of_fashion_designers_of_america/index.html?offset=80&newsest&

2008 Fall Must Haves!

1. a great tailored jacket
2. a crisp, long sleeve white shirt
3. a black pant suit
4. a turtleneck sweater
5. a cashmere wrap
6. menswear print plaids
7. tall boots
8. pearls
9. sheath dress
10. leather tote bag

www.//fashion.about.com

Color and Material Comparisons

Grey shows up again as an important color not only of 1996 but also 1998 & 1994

Color of 1998:

During 1997, the fashion world screamed that “black was in fact the new
black”, but in 1998 color has changed once again. Now designers claim that “gray is the new black”, store racks are crammed with such unromantic shades as mortar, steel, nickel, plate, petrol, slate, and gunmetal. The warmth of camel, vicuna and mushroom and rich tones of loden, olive, Bordeaux and mahogany are in the picture.

Color in 1994:

In 1994 black continued to conquer all while other shades such as purple, reds, hunter green, browns, and grey made up the other color trends for the year.

Luxury fabrics, seen in 1996, such as fur have made a repeat performance in the year 1998, while 1994 lacked luxury fabrics and materials

Materials of 1998:

Fur has once again appeared in closets as a fashion staple. Fox, mink, sable, and even the faux stuff have returned from the dungeon of political correctness. Designers are trimming casual clothes with fur and dying it in shocking colors. Fur accents or trim can be found on skirts, sweaters, cloth coats, shoes and boots, handbags, shrugs, and scarves. Then there are the envelope-pushing designers who are creating actual clothing with fur: Fendi has a knee-grazing sable skirt, and Versace boasts a white mink tank-top (a splendid perversion of form and function). Mink now comes in electric blue and pale pink. One finds fur covering even the most banal objects. Fendi, again, produced a fox-covered wheelie (the popular carry-on suitcase that rankles airline crews).

Material in 1994:

During the 90’s grunge was all the rage, which led to many lower quality fabrics and materials gain in popularity.

-Leather, flannel, denim, wovens, lycra, fleece, and linen.

For more information about 1996 colors & materials

-Fur Flies. By: Nordlinger, Pai, National Review, 00280038, 12/31/1998, Vol. 50, Issue 25

-From black to gray, from short to long, fashion marches on. By: Gardner, Marilyn, Christian Science Monitor, 08827729, 9/2/98, Vol. 90, Issue 196

-Stylin' styles of the '40s are back. By: White, Renee Minus, New York Amsterdam News, 00287121, 06/25/98, Vol. 89, Issue 26

Pyschographic Data for 2008 and 1996

Psychographic data are particularly useful when it’s important to understand not just who buys, but why they buy and how the product or service fits into a customer’s overall lifestyle or consumption habits. For this reason, psychographics are often an important consideration in market segmentation. Psychographics are also useful for providing the insights necessary to craft advertising that focuses not on product attributes, but rather on the benefits that those attributes may provide to the buyer. For this reason, marketing, advertising, and psychographics are all inter-connected.

Psychographics alone, though, are usually not sufficient: many marketing issues, such as determining what market to target or planning a media mix, require demographic data. However, decisions about such issues tend to be more effective if the demographic data can be linked back to psychographic data. Therefore, it’s often useful to first identify the psychographic characteristics of the target market(s), and then to determine the relative prevalence of the characteristics among different demographic groups.
In relation to marketing, sales, and advertising in the 90’s and today, the industry can use past psychographic data to determine how the consumer will react to new trends, fashions, price points, etc. One new technology that consumers were new to was the advancement in the internet. Retailers could now access and observe consumers from the World Wide Web and keep consistent records of data to review and asses while making decisions on their next plan of business.

To truly get into the sub-conscious of the consumer, retailers and forecasters must think outside the box to get the answers they’re looking for. For example, in 2008 a poll recently released by the Consumer Reports National Research Center shows that 82% of consumers are concerned about their credit card numbers being stolen online, while 72% are concerned that their online behaviors were being tracked and profiled by companies. Also, according to Archstone Consulting, results of its 2008 Holiday Gift Card Survey predict that, in reaction to the faltering economy, consumers will spend less on gift cards in Holiday 2008 and will also shift their gift card spending towards household necessities such as groceries, and gas, or small indulgences such as dining at restaurants. These polls and surveys may be just predictions, but the forecast on for the fashion industry depends greatly on these findings. If these analyses are true, the U.S. will experience a huge slump in sales come the holiday season, forcing companies and designers alike to either push sales through marketing or cut back on inventory and markdown clothing line come Christmas.

http://www.scarborough.com/statshop/reports/Customer_Profiling.pdf

http://www.mediapost.com/blogs/research_brief/