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Forecasting Survey for 2008

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Quantitative Strategic Plan

STRATEGIC PLAN & PROGRESS REPORT
By: Moody Jeans
Ning Lee
Erin McCutcheon
Ashley Hamm
Courtney Bunzel
Tamara Hall

Question: How do we find the hidden currents in fashion and interpret them to forecast future trends?

Strategic Plan: It has become apparent over time that discovering and understanding the fashion industry requires specific traits that build what is known as fashion forecasting today. As we prepare to begin our first fashion forecasting project, our team must look at what transition currents take so that we can analyze the future of fashion.
We will use several tools to solve and interpret the hidden currents, by using them towards fashion forecasting.
· The basic six steps of forecasting will in turn give us the knowledge to understand forecasting (i.e., defining the ‘cone of uncertainty’ and ‘looking for the curve’) and support the forecasts we put forward with qualitative and quantitative data.
· Innovation/innovators also play a key role in analyzing hidden currents. We will discover how to make the particular product we are researching respond to social/culture needs. We will pay close attention to outlying and unusual forms of inspiration (i.e., technology, food, media, etc.) that will in turn become the hidden currents we are searching for.
· Consumers are one of the most important aspects in interpreting hidden currents. They not only provide a target market for the product at hand, but they are also the sole provider of social and economical trends around the world. By looking at what choices (economical, political, social, etc.) propel the consumer to set these trends, we can determine the momentum behind the hidden currents and use them to forecast future consumer trends.
· Looking beyond the curve and anticipating trends can give us both competitive advantage in using our hidden currents and align our product with consumer’s preferences and demands. By using our trend analysis methods and looking at adoption processes, we can map out our hidden currents and establish the correlation between the consumer and different trends.

All of these steps will facilitate in the organization and planning of our project around Butler Bag. By following the guidelines listed above, we can easily interpret and use the hidden currents in fashion for the past and present forecast future trends. This will enhance and improve the Butler Bag and give our team a competitive advantage in gathering data and compiling our final project.

Progress Report:

PART I- RESEARCH: Gathering Data

Courtney Bunzel-

• Identify color trends for 1996-2000.
• Research Butler Bags and identify the key areas; color, price point, product lines, and sales.
• Scan the media, TV, music, movies, magazines, newspapers, etc.

Ashley Hamm

• Identify color trends for 2002-2006.
• Research Butler Bags’ competitors and other major designers.
• Observe surroundings.

Tamara Hall

• Identify color trends for 1984-1988.
• Begin taking photographs identifying cultural and social behaviors towards accessories.
• Identify overlapping tends and make charts.

Ning Lee

• Identify color trends for 1978-1982.
• Research consumer behavior.
• See what the target market would be best and investigate it.

Erin McCutcheon

• Identify color trends for 1990-1994.
• Gather information concerning the economic environment in 2010.
• Recognize patterns.

All Members:

• Identify color for 2010 from past data to discover the future direction
• Look at 2008 and how it relates to 2010.
• Transform data into knowledge.

PART II- TARGET MARKET: Gather data, analysis the data, interpret the data

As a team we will use our trend research as well as socio-economic research to identify an appropriate line of Butler Bags for our target market.

PART III- FORECAST FOR THE YEAR 2010: Presenting data in a clean professional way

Using the quantitative data from each year, we will discover patterns and hidden currents to successfully forecast for Butler Bags’ new line.

PART IV- DEVELOPMENT: Finishing our product line from our research

Prototypes will be sketched for the 2010 Butler Bag line.

Moody Jeans Poster Synthesis

Here is our team's Poster Synthesis for the years 1996 and 1998:

https://teamsite.oue.wsu.edu/progeval/amt/Shared%20Documents/Moody%20Jeans.pdf

To send our team feedback on our Poster, please click the link below:
feedback form

1994 vs.1996 vs.1998 Demographic, Geographic, and Consumer Behavior

From the Real Median Household Income graph, the income increased from 45,000 in 1994 to 48,000 in 1998, which indicates that the economy was booming, so does consumer confidence. Male and female earning increased around the same speed, but the earning of men was much higher than women since past decade. The consumer expenditure chart shows the change of expenditures from those years. In 1994, the expenditure was the highest reflected the growing economy. In 1998, the expenditure shrink more than half of the previous two years reflected the economy was slowing down and the coming of the recession in 2001.

Reference:

• http://www.erieri.com/newsletter/ volume 21, 36, and 37




• U.S. Department of Commerce, (2008, Aug 26). Household Income Rises, Poverty Rate Unchanged, Number of Uninsure Down. Retrieved October 13, 2008, from U.S. Census Census Bureau News Web site: http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/income_wealth/012528.html

Big Names in Designers for 1994 and 1996

1994 winners of the CFDA (Council of Fashion Designers of America) Awards
womens wear designer of the year: Richard Tyler
Perry Ellis Award for new fashion talent: Victor, Alfaro, Cynthia Rowley, Robert Massimo Freda
Cited for accessories: Robert Lee Morris, Gene Mayor

On the Street
Ralph Lauren employees wear T-Shirts that say "Fashion Targets Breast Cancer"
This becomes a 90's style statement

Calvin Klein named designer of the year for both men's and women's wear

1996 winners of the CFDA (Council of Fashion Designers of America) Awards
Donna Karan, Ralph Lauren, Helmut Lang, Daryl Kerrigan, and Arnold Scaasi

On the Street
movement of shopping for good causes continues in 1996,
Celebrities present consumers with opportunities to go on shopping sprees while benefitting AIDs organizations.

topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/c/council_of_fashion_designers_of_america/index.html?offset=80&newsest&

2008 Fall Must Haves!

1. a great tailored jacket
2. a crisp, long sleeve white shirt
3. a black pant suit
4. a turtleneck sweater
5. a cashmere wrap
6. menswear print plaids
7. tall boots
8. pearls
9. sheath dress
10. leather tote bag

www.//fashion.about.com